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Brown cuts into Coakley’s lead in Senate race

By Andrew Slade, Gavel Media Team, on January 12, 2010 2:24 PM

By Andrew Slade, News Editor -

For most voters in Massachusetts, statewide Congressional elections in which a Democrat is running against a Republican are not seen as the most competitive races. The state’s Congressional delegation is comprised entirely of Democrats, and the last Republican elected to the US Senate by Massachusetts voters was Edward Brooke in 1972. On Jan. 19, however, Massachusetts residents will participate in a special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Ted Kennedy – a seat that might not be as solidly blue as was assumed just a few months ago.

This past August, Sen. Kennedy’s passing opened up the seat he had held since 1962. In December, Mass. Attorney General Martha Coakley won the Democratic primary, while State Sen. Scott Brown clinched the Republican nomination. Since then, Brown, the obvious underdog as a Republican going up against a popular Democrat with statewide name recognition, has worked tirelessly to prove wrong those who said the winner of the Democratic primary would be the next Senator representing the Bay State.

While Boston Globe polls show Coakley with a solid 15-point lead over Brown just about a week before the election, The Washington Post has reported that two automated polls show Brown within single digits of Coakley. Consequently, Democratic organizers have begun working aggressively to ensure what was previously thought of as a virtual automatic win. Former President Bill Clinton will be campaigning for Coakley in Massachusetts on Friday, and campaign officials are recruiting last-minute volunteers and donors.

On the other side of the ticket, Brown is attempting to take advantage of the national political climate to, if nothing else, make himself better known to voters. Brown is benefitting from the work of independent groups like the American Future Fund, which is spending over $400,000 targeting Coakley, primarily for her positions on fiscal issues. He is also using to his advantage concern among many undecided voters about health care reform, marketing himself as the 41st vote against such a bill in the Senate.

As Globe polls indicate, Brown still has a way to go over the next several days if he hopes to cut into Coakley’s lead. Statistics indicate that voters are most concerned about health care, the economy and taxes: all areas in which Coakley rates higher as far as voters’ trust in the candidate’s ability to address such issues. Moreover, Coakley puts up very strong numbers among racial minorities, women, young voters, and those with a post-graduate education.

For Republicans this election day, lower turnout will likely be beneficial as Brown and Coakley are in a statistical tie among voters “extremely interested” in the race. Analysts anticipate a turnout rate around 35 percent; markedly low as a result of the fact that the election will take place the Tuesday after the long Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend, and there will be just one race on the ballot. Some Democrats blame Coakley for failing to generate excitement and motivate voters as the general election approaches, while others believe she is at a relative disadvantage regardless of the level of enthusiasm she is able to foster, as many are dissatisfied with the status quo in Washington and Brown is the “out-of-power” candidate.

“To avoid handing the Republicans bragging rights for making it a competitive race, she’s got to turn it up a notch and remind voters why it is they elect Democrats in Massachusetts and why she’s the change agent in the race,” said a Democratic strategist to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity.

Seemingly confident, Coakley campaign spokesman Corey Welford told The Post, “We have great momentum heading into these final days, but we are taking nothing for granted.”