Nearly six months into the U.S. war against Iran, the most consequential area of fighting has continued to be the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait–that at its narrowest becomes a mere 21 mile wide waterway–transported nearly 25% of the world’s oil before the war. Today, however, the flow of oil has been stymied by Iran, bringing massive impacts on the U.S. and world economies.  

On Sept. 19 the U.S. Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of the U.S. military command for the Middle East (CENTCOM), announced that the U.S. helped protect ships transporting over a billion barrels of oil through the Strait in the past 60 days, even as Iranian missiles and drones continue to threaten the tankers. While this number has been questioned as optimistic, it’s clear that at least some oil is getting out of the Strait. Iran’s claim that the Strait is fully under their control is not true. 

According to independent trackers, the number may be as high as 10 million barrels of oil a day and climbing, though financial institutions such as Bank of America estimate a number closer to 4-8 million barrels. The variance in these estimates will impact the price per barrel and could be the difference between global economic turmoil and business as usual. 

With economic stakes this high, the reliability of these numbers becomes paramount. The independent trackers have begun using a novel system of tracking. The previously used Automatic Identification System (AIS), which was used to track ships, was deemed inadequate after discovering that it could be turned on or off to hide ships’ locations. They have reported a much lower level of traffic, often near zero. 

AIS is often used as a way to avoid crashes, but has become a danger, equipping Iran with an easy way of targeting ships. AIS usage in the Strait has fallen steeply, with few ships seen exiting or entering the Strait using AIS. 

The lack of activity on AIS, does not mean ships have not been able to navigate the Strait. Groups like Hormuz Strait Tracker have utilized images from satellites of ships to track ships transiting through the Strait. Therefore,it is possible that estimates made by the U.S. of 1 billion barrels of oil making it through the Strait are likely to be closer to the truth than one would expect if relying solely on AIS numbers. 

Further, momentum in guiding ships across the Strait seems to be increasing, as demonstrated by claims from the U.S. that it protected the transport of 40 million barrels of oil in just the last 48 hours. 

The U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping is compounding Iran’s economic woes. According to the U.S., Iranian sea-based oil exports are being kept near zero. While the U.S. has failed to create regime change or ensure a nuclear-free Iran, American efforts to reopen the Strait for non-Iranian shipping are seeing increasingly positive results, and the Iranian ability to keep the Strait closed to tanker traffic is slipping. 

Iran’s economy has contracted by nearly 10% according to Al Jazeera, indicating that after months of U.S. difficulties in its conflict with Iran, the U.S. is beginning to get an upper hand in what has thus far been a disappointing campaign for the Trump Administration, which always looks for fast, tangible results. 

As the U.S. midterm elections approach and Iran faces continued pressure from the U.S. blockade, the Strait of Hormuz may become more of a question of counting ships and calculating oil deficits rather than a simple story of whether the Strait is open. In America and around the world, the economic challenges of high prices at the pump caused by the conflict will ensure that the world’s attention and urgency remain on the status of the Strait.

Michael Salemme

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